Say a campaign reaches 1,000 live people a day. A detector that wrongly calls 5% of them a machine has abandoned 50 calls before the dialer has over-dialed once. That is a 5% abandon rate, over the line, with the pacing set perfectly.
At 3% the detector alone spends the whole allowance, and any over-dial on top of it puts the campaign out of the safe harbor. To leave room for normal pacing, the detector's error on people has to sit well under 1%, and you have to know the number, not guess it.
This is why AMDSure reports people sent to voicemail as its own figure, with the sample size, and why people are decided first: a short hello is the clearest signal there is, and a person decided in 2.5 seconds is a person still inside the two-second window once the agent bridge is counted.